Why should we fear an Iranian bomb more than a Pakistani bomb?
If Iran, as seems to be the case at the time of writing, looks to be trying to deescalate, that would seem to completely undermine the argument that Iran would be suicidal with a bomb - they clearly have a self preservation instinct. Wouldn't it make more sense that the Ayatollah just doesn't want to be sodomised to death like Gaddafi who did cooperate with the US?
What exactly is the West—mainly the U.S.—doing to figure out how close Iran is to getting the Bomb? And is it real intelligence, or just men in suits pointing at satellite photos going, ‘That definitely looks like a nuclear teapot’?
This is a really important question that’s being grossly mishandled by the “press.” I hope he talks about it extensively in the interview.
For what it’s worth, I think it makes sense for us regular folks to formulate our best guess based on whatever data we have. And the data at hand suggests that Israel had high-resolution intelligence on every aspect of Iran—as evidenced by the unparalleled precision and target-selectivity of the recent strikes.
Some would claim this clashes with the failure to anticipate Oct. 7. The idea being: either Mossad is amazing and wanted Oct. 7, or Mossad is utterly incompetent because they didn’t predict it. I find both arguments ridiculous.
Gaza was a closed society under tight control, where everyone was either loyal, terrified, or both. Iran, by contrast, is a brittle regime facing an extremely recalcitrant, worldly, and capable fraction of its population.
Based on those observations alone, I think it’s reasonable to presume—just as a guess—that Israel possesses a historically unprecedented quantity and quality of intelligence on Iran. They likely know every detail of the nuclear program.
I'm really glad you asked this, because the comparisons to the Iraq WMD debacle—which we ALL knew was nonsense—seem completely absurd to me. My argument is nothing more than a reasoned guess, and I’m anxious to hear real expert analysis.
Honestly, the western news media should all just get together and jump off a cliff, as far as I’m concerned.
Hi Nathan, Mossad does not have responsibility for security within Israel or the Palestinian territories. Mossad is the equivalent of the CIA. However, the Shabach, which is the Israeli equivalent of the FBI, os responsible for Israeli, Faza and West Bank. The intelligence failure falls at the feet of the Shabach and the Defence intelligence office. This distinction is very important. Ronen Bergman details this and the history of the this split in his book, Rise and Kill First.
Otherwise, I agree with your comment that Iran is a brittle and large society with numerous groups that resent the ruling theocracy and military corruption of the IRGC. Gaza is essentially under tightly knit clan like structure and thus very difficult to penetrate.
Malcolm Gladwell focussed on the concept of how smaller countries have traditionally had great success infiltrating larger counties' security services in his podcast Revisionist History.
Thanks. That's helpful. I get exposure to a lot of trash talk about how Oct. 7th proves that Mossad is "either incompetent or dishonest", and I never bought it. Really appreciate this reply, and I'll certainly order and read Bergman's book!
Regarding the US bombing of the facilities, would that have been operationally possible without the israelis dominating the air for 10 days, or is the US tech just that good?
In your experience, what is the most misunderstood aspect of human motivation versus manipulation—and how do you recommend people recognize and protect themselves from unintended manipulation in daily life?
I have listened to Mr Bustamante's commentary on the Middle East several times. It is clear he is not well informed--rather he seems to rely on same stereotypes or conceptions that have led endless Western leaders to misunderstand the Middle East. Specifically, he seems to poorly understand the internal politics of Israel or any of the Muslim or Arab countries. Likewise, it is unclear that he speaks/understands any of the languages, nor does he demonstrate that he reads the first hand journalism from native speakers.
However, this problem isn't unique to Mr. Bustamante. Many of the commentators to the Western World speak about the middle east (and other regions) without true language expertise. How is that we (the audience) should take seriously the opinions of people like Mr. Bustamante--i.e. those who are not on the ground first hand and/or do not have the language or culture skills/expertise to understand and interpret what explains the proximal factors that underlie the decision making of leaders like Khomeini, Netanyahu, MBS or average Palestinian or Israeli civilians?
You may be right for all I know, and I would not be able to argue for or against him cause I never worked in diplomatic, military of intelligence spaces. Please post some interviews and essays here of people who's analyses you endorse--this audience is a smart bunch and we are all hungry for high quality information! FF and KK are working hard but they can't be expected to do everything. :)
For the Israeli point of view which I know well, then I would bring on:
- Ronen Bergman, author of Rise and Kill First, a book that details the long history of Israel's clandestine efforts. He also writes for the NYTimes
- Haviv Retig-Gur, analyst at Times of Israel and expert on Israeli and modern (since the 1800s) Arab/Muslim religious and cultural history.
- Nadav Eyal, journalist at Yediot Ahranot, and a leading security expert
- Amit Segal, a leading television journalist in Israel
- Tal Becker, an international law expert and former representative of Israel to the ICC. He is quite balanced and nuanced in his evaluation.
from the Arab/Muslim point of view, it would be good to hear from a local expert who actually works first hand in Saudi, or UAE or Turkey, or even Iran (not Dr. Marandi, the propagandist who yells at Piers Morgan). Please no Mehdi Hassan, who gets more than enough air-time via Al Jazeera is more of talking head than an on the ground reporter. The problem with the Muslim countries above is that there may not be as robust of a free press as there is in Israel. The first 3 of the Israeli people mentioned above are definitely anti-Bibi/anti-Likud. Only Amit Segal is a bit of a Bibi supporter. But all of them have deep knowledge, speak Hebrew and/or Arabic fluently and are very well spoken in English.
It would also be good to hear from someone in the Kurdish world. Kurds are a significant (and growing) minority in Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran. There must be English speaking journalists from these areas who can discuss the issues and point of view of these people.
Also, the Balochi people, who dominate eastern Iran (where most of the oil is located), are also a very big (and growing) minority that are also western oriented. I am sure there journalists or people who are well spoken regarding this group.
Thanks! I am a HUGE admirer of HRG but many of these other names are new to me. I'll listening and reading everything from him! And I certainly agree with your take on Mehdi Hassan. Thanks for all these great suggestions--this will keep me busy for a while. :) :)
How do we capitalize on this opportunity, that some describe not only as historic but "biblical," to reshape Iran--and not blow it, a la Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan? How do we ensure that this war actually changes something, and is not merely a blingy punitive expedition that will have to be repeated against a better-prepared, more-hardened adversary?
My ask is more like a questionnaire and less like a question. Thanks for coming on this great show in this important moment! I have never known a single global event to shine a brighter light on the disgraceful condition of our media--as a result of this us regular folks have no idea what is likely to unfold if the Iranian regime implodes. Can you tell us about power in Iran? Who has it, how does it work and what is the factional landscape within the IRGC and within the Clerictocracy? Is the IRGC resilient, internally coherent, monolithic and built on internal loyalty and commitment, or is it brittle and divided with competing redundant self-serving operators that are paranoid and distrust one another? Outside the power brokers what are the cultural and social divisions in Iranian society at large? Is the regime resilient or is it brittle? What are some plausible models for how a regime meltdown might play out? (If this requires a three hour discussion could you come back on the show soon? :)
In for a penny in for a pound....how would you describe the relationships in the Russian-Iran-China complex and how might those relationships impact the likelihood and nature of a meltdown scenario spontaneous or otherwise? By what channels and in what measures are China and/or Russia financing global jihad and if so why? This might be the most poorly reported issue I have ever experienced in my half century of political awareness.
To the people in the western societies whom vehemently support the messages of anti west, do u believe in the near future they will almost try to forget they ever supported it from shame
How mobile is uranium-enriching equipment? How many miles of tunnels are there in Iran? What percentages of the equipment and the uranium enriched using it is stored in them? What is the life-expectancy of an Iranian who provides Israel or the USA with such information?
I remember this guy from the previous interview and he sounded typical post Vietnam/Iraq stereotypes. Almost like he was reading from a bad script. A bunch of predictable anti-war platitudes and buzzwords. Seemed like he didn’t know that much and tried to overdo on emotion.
Two part question:
Why should we fear an Iranian bomb more than a Pakistani bomb?
If Iran, as seems to be the case at the time of writing, looks to be trying to deescalate, that would seem to completely undermine the argument that Iran would be suicidal with a bomb - they clearly have a self preservation instinct. Wouldn't it make more sense that the Ayatollah just doesn't want to be sodomised to death like Gaddafi who did cooperate with the US?
What exactly is the West—mainly the U.S.—doing to figure out how close Iran is to getting the Bomb? And is it real intelligence, or just men in suits pointing at satellite photos going, ‘That definitely looks like a nuclear teapot’?
This is a really important question that’s being grossly mishandled by the “press.” I hope he talks about it extensively in the interview.
For what it’s worth, I think it makes sense for us regular folks to formulate our best guess based on whatever data we have. And the data at hand suggests that Israel had high-resolution intelligence on every aspect of Iran—as evidenced by the unparalleled precision and target-selectivity of the recent strikes.
Some would claim this clashes with the failure to anticipate Oct. 7. The idea being: either Mossad is amazing and wanted Oct. 7, or Mossad is utterly incompetent because they didn’t predict it. I find both arguments ridiculous.
Gaza was a closed society under tight control, where everyone was either loyal, terrified, or both. Iran, by contrast, is a brittle regime facing an extremely recalcitrant, worldly, and capable fraction of its population.
Based on those observations alone, I think it’s reasonable to presume—just as a guess—that Israel possesses a historically unprecedented quantity and quality of intelligence on Iran. They likely know every detail of the nuclear program.
I'm really glad you asked this, because the comparisons to the Iraq WMD debacle—which we ALL knew was nonsense—seem completely absurd to me. My argument is nothing more than a reasoned guess, and I’m anxious to hear real expert analysis.
Honestly, the western news media should all just get together and jump off a cliff, as far as I’m concerned.
Hi Nathan, Mossad does not have responsibility for security within Israel or the Palestinian territories. Mossad is the equivalent of the CIA. However, the Shabach, which is the Israeli equivalent of the FBI, os responsible for Israeli, Faza and West Bank. The intelligence failure falls at the feet of the Shabach and the Defence intelligence office. This distinction is very important. Ronen Bergman details this and the history of the this split in his book, Rise and Kill First.
Otherwise, I agree with your comment that Iran is a brittle and large society with numerous groups that resent the ruling theocracy and military corruption of the IRGC. Gaza is essentially under tightly knit clan like structure and thus very difficult to penetrate.
Malcolm Gladwell focussed on the concept of how smaller countries have traditionally had great success infiltrating larger counties' security services in his podcast Revisionist History.
Thanks. That's helpful. I get exposure to a lot of trash talk about how Oct. 7th proves that Mossad is "either incompetent or dishonest", and I never bought it. Really appreciate this reply, and I'll certainly order and read Bergman's book!
Regarding the US bombing of the facilities, would that have been operationally possible without the israelis dominating the air for 10 days, or is the US tech just that good?
In your experience, what is the most misunderstood aspect of human motivation versus manipulation—and how do you recommend people recognize and protect themselves from unintended manipulation in daily life?
There is some talk of regime change in Iran, how likely is this and would it actually change anything (or even make it worse)?
I have listened to Mr Bustamante's commentary on the Middle East several times. It is clear he is not well informed--rather he seems to rely on same stereotypes or conceptions that have led endless Western leaders to misunderstand the Middle East. Specifically, he seems to poorly understand the internal politics of Israel or any of the Muslim or Arab countries. Likewise, it is unclear that he speaks/understands any of the languages, nor does he demonstrate that he reads the first hand journalism from native speakers.
However, this problem isn't unique to Mr. Bustamante. Many of the commentators to the Western World speak about the middle east (and other regions) without true language expertise. How is that we (the audience) should take seriously the opinions of people like Mr. Bustamante--i.e. those who are not on the ground first hand and/or do not have the language or culture skills/expertise to understand and interpret what explains the proximal factors that underlie the decision making of leaders like Khomeini, Netanyahu, MBS or average Palestinian or Israeli civilians?
You may be right for all I know, and I would not be able to argue for or against him cause I never worked in diplomatic, military of intelligence spaces. Please post some interviews and essays here of people who's analyses you endorse--this audience is a smart bunch and we are all hungry for high quality information! FF and KK are working hard but they can't be expected to do everything. :)
For the Israeli point of view which I know well, then I would bring on:
- Ronen Bergman, author of Rise and Kill First, a book that details the long history of Israel's clandestine efforts. He also writes for the NYTimes
- Haviv Retig-Gur, analyst at Times of Israel and expert on Israeli and modern (since the 1800s) Arab/Muslim religious and cultural history.
- Nadav Eyal, journalist at Yediot Ahranot, and a leading security expert
- Amit Segal, a leading television journalist in Israel
- Tal Becker, an international law expert and former representative of Israel to the ICC. He is quite balanced and nuanced in his evaluation.
from the Arab/Muslim point of view, it would be good to hear from a local expert who actually works first hand in Saudi, or UAE or Turkey, or even Iran (not Dr. Marandi, the propagandist who yells at Piers Morgan). Please no Mehdi Hassan, who gets more than enough air-time via Al Jazeera is more of talking head than an on the ground reporter. The problem with the Muslim countries above is that there may not be as robust of a free press as there is in Israel. The first 3 of the Israeli people mentioned above are definitely anti-Bibi/anti-Likud. Only Amit Segal is a bit of a Bibi supporter. But all of them have deep knowledge, speak Hebrew and/or Arabic fluently and are very well spoken in English.
It would also be good to hear from someone in the Kurdish world. Kurds are a significant (and growing) minority in Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran. There must be English speaking journalists from these areas who can discuss the issues and point of view of these people.
Also, the Balochi people, who dominate eastern Iran (where most of the oil is located), are also a very big (and growing) minority that are also western oriented. I am sure there journalists or people who are well spoken regarding this group.
Thanks! I am a HUGE admirer of HRG but many of these other names are new to me. I'll listening and reading everything from him! And I certainly agree with your take on Mehdi Hassan. Thanks for all these great suggestions--this will keep me busy for a while. :) :)
How do we capitalize on this opportunity, that some describe not only as historic but "biblical," to reshape Iran--and not blow it, a la Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan? How do we ensure that this war actually changes something, and is not merely a blingy punitive expedition that will have to be repeated against a better-prepared, more-hardened adversary?
that's a really good question!
My ask is more like a questionnaire and less like a question. Thanks for coming on this great show in this important moment! I have never known a single global event to shine a brighter light on the disgraceful condition of our media--as a result of this us regular folks have no idea what is likely to unfold if the Iranian regime implodes. Can you tell us about power in Iran? Who has it, how does it work and what is the factional landscape within the IRGC and within the Clerictocracy? Is the IRGC resilient, internally coherent, monolithic and built on internal loyalty and commitment, or is it brittle and divided with competing redundant self-serving operators that are paranoid and distrust one another? Outside the power brokers what are the cultural and social divisions in Iranian society at large? Is the regime resilient or is it brittle? What are some plausible models for how a regime meltdown might play out? (If this requires a three hour discussion could you come back on the show soon? :)
In for a penny in for a pound....how would you describe the relationships in the Russian-Iran-China complex and how might those relationships impact the likelihood and nature of a meltdown scenario spontaneous or otherwise? By what channels and in what measures are China and/or Russia financing global jihad and if so why? This might be the most poorly reported issue I have ever experienced in my half century of political awareness.
To the people in the western societies whom vehemently support the messages of anti west, do u believe in the near future they will almost try to forget they ever supported it from shame
How do AF pilots safely and reliably fly missions like this which have a 30+ hours duration?
How mobile is uranium-enriching equipment? How many miles of tunnels are there in Iran? What percentages of the equipment and the uranium enriched using it is stored in them? What is the life-expectancy of an Iranian who provides Israel or the USA with such information?
Is it true that the CIA, and intelligence community in general, is actively trying to undermine Trump's presidency?
I remember this guy from the previous interview and he sounded typical post Vietnam/Iraq stereotypes. Almost like he was reading from a bad script. A bunch of predictable anti-war platitudes and buzzwords. Seemed like he didn’t know that much and tried to overdo on emotion.