Liam Halligan

Telegraph columnist, economist

Renowned for his incisive analysis of economic and financial matters, Liam Halligan is one of Britain’s most respected economists. Since 2003, he has penned the weekly "Economic Agenda" column for The Sunday Telegraph, earning accolades such as the British Press Award. Halligan's career includes roles as an economics correspondent for Channel 4 News and political correspondent at the Financial Times. He co-founded Russian Economic Trends and the Russian-European Centre for Economic Policy, advising the Russian government during the 1990s. He also co-hosts The Telegraph's Planet Normal podcast. This is his fourth appearance on TRIGGERnometry.

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What did we talk about this time?

At the dawn of his second term, Trump is quickly establishing himself as arguably the most economically antagonistic president in modern history. Even long-standing allies have had the threat of a bludgeoning tariff over their head. To some, it’s a one-way ticket to recession, while others claim it’s the first step into the next golden age, a necessary move to re-establish America’s sovereignty. But another group say it’s neither something to fear nor delight in - it’s nothing more than a bargaining chip. As a leading economist, what does Liam think?

”[They say] to take Trump seriously but not literally. But to be taken seriously, he has to put some tariffs on, at least for a little while … [but] tariffs mean consumers pay more. They generate inflation. Outside of the political hurly-burly, the analysts are saying this is going to stall the US economy. He’s not just convulsed politics, he’s also convulsed the outlook for financial markets everywhere. When America sneezes, the world catches a cold.”

Still, is this cause for alarm? The allyship between America and its fellow Western powers runs deep. Trump may be willing to stress-test that relationship in a way his predecessors wouldn’t entertain, but those relationships are unlikely to fracture.

That may be so, but the same is not true for the primary scapegoat of Trump’s tariff plan: China.

Liam asserts that never in his life has he seen the kind of rhetoric and bullishness the country is exuding now. In his words, “if America wants a war, China will fight it.”

”You may be able to play tariff games with the Europeans, but not the Chinese. They don’t want to lose face. They don’t want to be seen as someone else’s plaything. By some definitions, they are the most powerful economy in the world.”