Mike Baker has had two careers. Each could not be more different from the other.
For nearly two decades, Mike was a CIA officer, working in the fields of counterterrorism and counternarcotics. After this, he took his hard-earned expertise to the private sector, first as a technical advisor in the entertainment industry, and then as a talking head. Since, he has been a regular face on the likes of Red Eye, Opie & Anthony, The Greg Gutfeld Show and The Joe Rogan Experience, as well as hosting the Amazon Prime series, Black Files Declassified and his own podcast, The President’s Daily Brief.
Why did we invite him on?
”You should never take what the President says literally. Sometimes he’s just throwing sh*t at the wall to see what sticks.”
We had Mike on at the tail end of 2023, nine weeks after October 7th, to prospect on the uncertain closure of the still-ongoing war in Gaza. It was an enlightening conversation, and we decided then that, should (or when) another moment like that came along, we’d have Mike back to talk about that too.
Just before we set off for America, the country went to war with Iran. We’ve hosted a string of interviews on that subject, tackling it from positions that could not be more opposed from one another. Each has brought an insight and covered a blind spot, and we knew Mike would be no different.
What did we learn?
Much of the debate regarding Iran right now hinges on one core question: did they really want a nuclear bomb?
Some have argued that, rather than planning to build a weapon, Iran only wanted to create the impression that they could. It’s a claim backed up by American intelligence (which has since changed) and, if true, renders this entire intervention unjustified.
Mike doesn’t agree.
”There is no peaceful civilian purpose for 60%-enriched uranium. There just isn’t. Moving it onto 90% is the speediest part. If they’d have kept it at a number that was a reasonable for civilian purposes, things would have been different.”
Not only that, but there were unique reasons that made Iran unacceptable members of the heady club of nuclear-armed states. Most nuclear countries have the bombs for one reason only: to dissuade others from attacking. “If you want peace, prepare for war.”
That, in Mike’s estimation, is not true of Iran. They wanted nukes so they could use them.
”A regime like theirs is more likely to use nukes. The zealous nature of a theocracy… People have done incredible things in the name of religion. We might be tired of the War on Terror, but the terrorists aren’t.”
It might sound like Mike is an unapologetic advocate for America’s intervention in the Middle East. After all, he’s wholly unflinching in his criticism of the Iranian regime, and echoes many of the points we’ve heard from the war’s most ardent defenders. He also thinks it might be a huge mistake.
”I think it’s about time this regime leaves the planet and gives the people of Iran some kind of future. You’re never going to get long-term peace in the Middle East as long as this regime exists. Their stated objective has always been the destruction of Israel. I can believe all that and still believe that this wasn’t well thought through.”
What does Mike mean?
He prospects that America, the most powerful country in the world, might have overestimated its abilities. Still drunk on the success of Venezuela, Trump’s administration strode confidently into the unknown. As we’re starting to learn more, perhaps that was the wrong move.
”I think there were people who thought this was gonna be easier. They didn’t see that the Strait of Hormuz would be ‘a thing’, when it’s Iran’s only bargaining chip… and now they’re surprised?”
It’s baffling to consider how this might have happened. Trump might be a loose cannon, but it’s hard to imagine the entire apparatus of American government could orient itself so off-north. The CIA, in partnership with Mossad, will have had access to the finest intelligence of the region. How could it be that it wasn’t “thought through?”
”That’s a good question. The Pentagon has a lot of smart people, people with real world experience. Does that mean they’re being listened to? I don’t know, I’m not sitting in the room with them. But I can’t imagine there weren’t briefings where someone pointed to a big map of the Strait of Hormuz and didn’t explain how important it was and that Iran controlled it. Now we’re in a position where we’re asking other countries to come in and help.”
A number of isolationist voices have asked: Why should I care? Iran is a country far, far away. It’s a culture I don’t understand populated by people I’ll never know. What does it matter to me?
As Mike explains, nobody will be unaffected by this war - not even the citizens of countries trying desperately to stay out of it.
”It’s a real significant impact, and people will feel it. They’ll see it first at the pump… 1/5th of all oil flows through the Strait. But also liquefied natural gas, which is important for Europe and Asia… And all the other things, fertilisers, helium… This is serious…”
The knock-on is extremely worrying. The cost of everything is certain to rise, and if that continues for long enough, we might face a recession.
At least, that’s what we’ll have to do. Not everyone will be so unlucky…
