The Australian government spent $570 billion over the pandemic, much lost in waste and fraud. Other governments behaved similarly. Seems to me that this was an accelerant to the current economic malaise, which at least in Australia, really go back decades of relying on mining and housing as the basis for the economy. How consequential do you feel all that spending combined with lockdowns to the current situation?
I would love to ask Liam, about what he thinks is the greatest potential for British economy to not only recover but to grow and develop into what it’s naively population thinks it still is?
'The only thing economists agree upon is Ricardo's law of comparative advantage in international trade' say economists; ergo tariffs are self-harm and Trump is an idiot. But why is this not true:
1. by changing the price, the demand for the imported product will reduce - giving USA produced products a bigger share and encouraging on-shoring of manufacturing.
2. although prices of imports will rise, it is unlikely to be by the full amount of the tariff - exporters to the USA will be forced to accept thinner margins. In this sense some of the tariff is indeed being paid by foreigners, not by the US purchasers of imports.
I also would like Liam to be asked Keith's question #1. From a national security standpoint, it is essential the US reestablish our supply chain. Too many Americans aren't aware of how tight a grip China has on our balls, which they could crush to prevent our interference in their activities with Taiwan or elsewhere. Covid gave us a taste of that dilemma and then we quickly forgot about the problem.
Theories of free trade seem to describe a best case attainable in a model world. Could we be better off in practice if major continental regions had each maintained internal self sufficiency and traded mainly within themselves?
I may be connecting some dots that don't belong together, but this is what it looks like in my head:
Generative AI has the potential to trigger deflationary pressures through two mechanisms. First, as AI systems increasingly automate tasks traditionally performed by humans, we should expect substantial productivity gains across industries. Second, if workers displaced by automation cannot secure alternative employment with comparable compensation, we may witness both reduced consumer demand for goods and services and diminished wage growth pressures due to an expanding pool of available skilled labor.
Could this transformation create a deflationary cycle where increased efficiency and decreased purchasing power reinforce one another?
(While writing this question it dawned on me that I should probably just ask Claude)
I read an essay on Substack which argued that we need Red Teams to cost benefit regulations. The argument related to regulatory costs imposed on big infrastructure projects like Hinkley C and HS2- but my question is more broad- could such an approach be used to eliminate unnecessary cost burdens in areas like farming, housing, etc?
Is the US market attractive enough that tariffs will encourage enough investment in the US to offset any additional costs placed on the consumer from tariffs? Can the US increase GDP per capita through additional onshore investment to offset or outpace any inflationary pressure caused by tariffs?
The majority of UK MPs come from the same academic background (studying politics, law or economics or from a union) which seems to limit people to the same ideas. Would getting people of different lines of work change things and if so how do we get these to the top of the food chain?
What are the benefits of tariffs for the supposedly "penalized" country?
Rather than resisting tariffs and import quotas, a better approach may be to ignore them. If the US were to impose a 25% tariff on Canada, Australia, and New Zealand (CANZ), the CANZ currencies would weaken against the US dollar. This depreciation would make CANZ exports cheaper and more competitive in non-US markets. Meanwhile, domestic costs would remain stable, providing CANZ industries with natural protection against foreign imports.
So, is a tariff truly a punishment, or does it simply restructure trade patterns between the countries involved?
Australian colonies led the way in electoral innovation, introducing the secret ballot for parliamentary elections in the 1800s—a practice that spread worldwide. But another major electoral reform remains underutilized outside Australia: preferential voting.
For over a century, Australia has used preferential voting in federal and state elections, amassing more than 700 years of cumulative experience in running successful preferential elections. This system offers three key advantages:
1) It prevents vote-splitting between similar candidates.
2)The punter can vote '1' next to the party they want, and vote '2' next to the sod they'll tolerate.
3) The victorious candidate is given a very clear picture of what his electorate wants.
If the UK adopted preferential voting, Labour might have struggled to win government. Instead, the Conservatives and Reform would likely have formed a dominant coalition, as their voters’ preferences would flow to each other rather than splitting the right-leaning vote.
So, what will it take for other parliaments to finally adopt this century-old electoral reform?
Thanks Liam for you and Allison’s planet normal podcast. Liam, with your interest in Russia economics since the 90s, I’m curious of your thoughts about the US mineral deal in Ukraine, Ukraine long history of corruption, how might it impact the economy of that region. Thank you
"If you want to be rich you need to be free." Discuss.
BTW, Short Slaphead was supposed to be a reference to a well-known Russian dictator. Tragically, the reference was lost on KK who for reasons known only to himself and his barber claims that the dictator in question does have some hair up top albeit very little.
I would love to ask: Could US Tariffs be seen as a wake up call for Europe to address bureaucratic disconnect and align more closely with American democratic values Europe is clearly steering away from and not serving their people?
When politicians talk about figures in economics, for example the amount of money that putting VAT on private school fees will raise or the money saved from removing the winter fuel payments, are they just trying to impress the electorate with, what sound like, big numbers? Or do they actually believe that these amounts are significant? I always try and see these numbers in overall terms, like how they compare to debt interest repayment or as a % of NHS spending.
The Australian government spent $570 billion over the pandemic, much lost in waste and fraud. Other governments behaved similarly. Seems to me that this was an accelerant to the current economic malaise, which at least in Australia, really go back decades of relying on mining and housing as the basis for the economy. How consequential do you feel all that spending combined with lockdowns to the current situation?
I would love to ask Liam, about what he thinks is the greatest potential for British economy to not only recover but to grow and develop into what it’s naively population thinks it still is?
'The only thing economists agree upon is Ricardo's law of comparative advantage in international trade' say economists; ergo tariffs are self-harm and Trump is an idiot. But why is this not true:
1. by changing the price, the demand for the imported product will reduce - giving USA produced products a bigger share and encouraging on-shoring of manufacturing.
2. although prices of imports will rise, it is unlikely to be by the full amount of the tariff - exporters to the USA will be forced to accept thinner margins. In this sense some of the tariff is indeed being paid by foreigners, not by the US purchasers of imports.
I also would like Liam to be asked Keith's question #1. From a national security standpoint, it is essential the US reestablish our supply chain. Too many Americans aren't aware of how tight a grip China has on our balls, which they could crush to prevent our interference in their activities with Taiwan or elsewhere. Covid gave us a taste of that dilemma and then we quickly forgot about the problem.
Do you think Britain has a chance to restart manufacturing locally since exceeding has been outsourced? What will need to be done? Less taxing?
Theories of free trade seem to describe a best case attainable in a model world. Could we be better off in practice if major continental regions had each maintained internal self sufficiency and traded mainly within themselves?
Could Generative AI lead to deflation?
I may be connecting some dots that don't belong together, but this is what it looks like in my head:
Generative AI has the potential to trigger deflationary pressures through two mechanisms. First, as AI systems increasingly automate tasks traditionally performed by humans, we should expect substantial productivity gains across industries. Second, if workers displaced by automation cannot secure alternative employment with comparable compensation, we may witness both reduced consumer demand for goods and services and diminished wage growth pressures due to an expanding pool of available skilled labor.
Could this transformation create a deflationary cycle where increased efficiency and decreased purchasing power reinforce one another?
(While writing this question it dawned on me that I should probably just ask Claude)
I read an essay on Substack which argued that we need Red Teams to cost benefit regulations. The argument related to regulatory costs imposed on big infrastructure projects like Hinkley C and HS2- but my question is more broad- could such an approach be used to eliminate unnecessary cost burdens in areas like farming, housing, etc?
Is the US market attractive enough that tariffs will encourage enough investment in the US to offset any additional costs placed on the consumer from tariffs? Can the US increase GDP per capita through additional onshore investment to offset or outpace any inflationary pressure caused by tariffs?
The majority of UK MPs come from the same academic background (studying politics, law or economics or from a union) which seems to limit people to the same ideas. Would getting people of different lines of work change things and if so how do we get these to the top of the food chain?
What are the benefits of tariffs for the supposedly "penalized" country?
Rather than resisting tariffs and import quotas, a better approach may be to ignore them. If the US were to impose a 25% tariff on Canada, Australia, and New Zealand (CANZ), the CANZ currencies would weaken against the US dollar. This depreciation would make CANZ exports cheaper and more competitive in non-US markets. Meanwhile, domestic costs would remain stable, providing CANZ industries with natural protection against foreign imports.
So, is a tariff truly a punishment, or does it simply restructure trade patterns between the countries involved?
Australian colonies led the way in electoral innovation, introducing the secret ballot for parliamentary elections in the 1800s—a practice that spread worldwide. But another major electoral reform remains underutilized outside Australia: preferential voting.
For over a century, Australia has used preferential voting in federal and state elections, amassing more than 700 years of cumulative experience in running successful preferential elections. This system offers three key advantages:
1) It prevents vote-splitting between similar candidates.
2)The punter can vote '1' next to the party they want, and vote '2' next to the sod they'll tolerate.
3) The victorious candidate is given a very clear picture of what his electorate wants.
If the UK adopted preferential voting, Labour might have struggled to win government. Instead, the Conservatives and Reform would likely have formed a dominant coalition, as their voters’ preferences would flow to each other rather than splitting the right-leaning vote.
So, what will it take for other parliaments to finally adopt this century-old electoral reform?
Thanks Liam for you and Allison’s planet normal podcast. Liam, with your interest in Russia economics since the 90s, I’m curious of your thoughts about the US mineral deal in Ukraine, Ukraine long history of corruption, how might it impact the economy of that region. Thank you
"If you want to be rich you need to be free." Discuss.
BTW, Short Slaphead was supposed to be a reference to a well-known Russian dictator. Tragically, the reference was lost on KK who for reasons known only to himself and his barber claims that the dictator in question does have some hair up top albeit very little.
I would love to ask: Could US Tariffs be seen as a wake up call for Europe to address bureaucratic disconnect and align more closely with American democratic values Europe is clearly steering away from and not serving their people?
When politicians talk about figures in economics, for example the amount of money that putting VAT on private school fees will raise or the money saved from removing the winter fuel payments, are they just trying to impress the electorate with, what sound like, big numbers? Or do they actually believe that these amounts are significant? I always try and see these numbers in overall terms, like how they compare to debt interest repayment or as a % of NHS spending.